2013 NFL Season: Week 15 Picks and Upsets

NFL Week 15 Picks, Upsets and Predictions

We’re picking the Steelers to win at home over the Bengals in Week 15 – mostly for their pride. (Credit Ogrebot)

SidelineMOB is back on a hot streak when it comes to late season NFL picks and upsets. We went 13-3 last week, taking us to a not-too-shabby 25-7 over Week 13 and 14 in the 2013 NFL season. We hope to keep riding the hot hand as we enter a pivotal NFL Week 15 in terms of playoff positioning.

There aren’t any Week 15 NFL games featuring opponents that appear to be playoff locks, but there are a ton of games that will affect playoff seeding and the wild card chases in the both the AFC and NFC. For example, the Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins in a game that, should the Dolphins win, will give them a leg up on the Baltimore Ravens for the #6 seed in the AFC, especially given Baltimore’s tough remaining schedule (at Detroit, vs. New England, at Cincinnati).

The battle surrounding the NFC North playoff chase intensifies as the Lions, Bears and Packers all face tough tests. The Lions are the only team of the 3 with a home game, but they play host to the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens – and Detroit is coming off a humbling loss to the Eagles in the snow. Meanwhile, the Bears travel to Cleveland to play the Browns and their smothering 3-4 defense, while the Packers visit the Cowboys.

Speaking of Dallas and Philadelphia, the NFC East race is in danger of slipping away from the Cowboys. The Eagles travel to Minnesota to play a bad Vikings team (plus Adrian Peterson is questionable to play), while the Cowboys must host Green Bay and attempt to rebound from a convincing loss at Soldier Field.

It’s an intriguing Week 15 in the NFL, so let’s get right to the picks in an attempt to clear it up.

2013 NFL Week 15: LOCK of the Week

CAROLINA (home) over NY Jets

2013 NFL Week 15: UPSETS of the Week

PITTSBURGH (home) over Cincinnati

MIAMI (home) over New England

2013 NFL Week 15 picks and predictions

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos, Thursday Night Football:

If Philip Rivers and company can spring this win in Denver, they’ll be sitting at 7-7. With Miami hosting New England and Baltimore going to Detroit, there’s a chance all 3 teams could be 7-7 heading into the last 2 weeks of the season. That’s really the only chance San Diego has at the playoffs – and sadly, it starts with winning on the road against the Broncos. Sorry, Chargers fans. Broncos 34, Chargers 24.

Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons:

So, do we go with the dysfunctional team where the coach thinks the QB and GM are conspiring over his head? Or do we go with the dysfunctional team loaded with talent that apparently has decided to enter the “suck for Clowney” sweepstakes? It’s hard to figure which team wants to lose this game more badly. We think that in the end, Harry Douglas scores an accidental touchdown for the win. Falcons 28, Redskins 24.

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns:

This feels like a game that the Bears lose this season, right? Coming off a big win at home over the Cowboys, climbing into a tie atop the NFC North with Detroit at 7-6, a hair’s breath away from winning the division and making first-year coach Marc Trestman look like a mad Canadian Football League genius? It feels like one of those games, where we all remember at once that the Bears play no defense anymore while Josh Gordon racks up 250 receiving yards. But then again, the Browns gave up 32 points to Jacksonville. So who wins the battle of “who do we trust less”? That’s tough. Browns 31, Bears 30.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts:

After years of being a mediocre head coach, the Houston Texans decided the proper time to fire Gary Kubiak was while Kubiak was recovering from an on-field TIA (“mini stroke”). Ice cold, kids, ice cold. After witnessing Texans fans cheer a Matt Schaub injury and now this, we’re starting to wonder if Houston doesn’t deserve every bit of its 2-11 record. Colts 30, Texans 20.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins:

Simply put, if the Dolphins beat New England, Miami has far better odds to reach the AFC playoffs than the Ravens. Miami’s final 2 games after the Patriots: at Buffalo, vs. NY Jets. Rob Gronkowski is on season-ending IR. (Again.) Both Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson are questionable. The Dolphins have already beaten the Bengals and Colts this season. All that being said… screw it, let’s pick the upset. If Ryan Tannehill limits himself to one turnover, Miami can squeak this out at home. Dolphins 24, Patriots 23.

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings:

Adrian Peterson is unlikely to play, and that’s all you need to know. Eagles 34, Vikings 17.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants:

This game is a little scary for us. Mainly because it’s the kind of game that bad Giants teams have historically gotten up for and won. (Remember when the 5-8 Giants beat the 13-0 Broncos in 1998?) Well, the Giants are once again 5-8, and Seattle – good as they may be – is not the ’98 Broncos. Still, the last time Seattle came to MetLife Stadium they won 36-25, and that was before Russell Wilson. Seahawks 23, Giants 20.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Are the Tampa Bay Bucs winning because of Greg Schiano, or in spite of Greg Schiano? And, more importantly, is it bad that we don’t really care what the answer is? 49ers 29, Bucs 16.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars:

Gross. We do have one question about this game, though – how is slumping Buffalo favored on the road by 2 points in Jacksonville, where the Jaguars have won 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5? …oh, because those 3 straight wins have come against the Texans, Browns and Texans. Bills 20, Jaguars 16.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders:

Yes, the Raiders have some fight in them. But head coach Dennis Allen can’t pull the trigger on Matt McGloin or Terrelle Pryor, and neither will get it done against the Chiefs anyhow. The last thing you want facing Tamba Hali and Justin Houston is a gunshy head coach. Chiefs 28, Raiders 13.

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers:

Will the Jets start Geno Smith or Matt Simms? And, more importantly, does it matter? Yes, Geno showed glimpses of his early-season successes last week, but this is the Panthers defense. And ladies and gentlemen, the Panthers defense is officially humbled and furious. Panthers 31, Jets 15.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys:

Aaron Rodgers was upgraded from out to questionable on December 10th, giving Green Bay fans even more reason to hope against hope that Rodgers would return to action in Week 15. We think the odds are still dubious, and rightfully so – when in doubt, you have to preserve your franchise QB for the long term. Even so, they’d be facing a Dallas team in “must-win mode” at home, where the Cowboys are 5-1. Cowboys 27, Packers 23.

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans:

If you like great offensive football, change the channel. The Cardinals and Titans are dysfunctional at best on offense, but better than most on defense. How will Arizona cope with the loss of Tyrann Mathieu this week? And how do you handicap a matchup where Arizona is 2-4 on the road and Tennessee is 2-4 at home? When in doubt, take the better team. Cardinals 24, Titans 20.

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams:

If you’d like to bet against a home team based on the spread this week, please take note that the Rams (3-3 at home) are only getting 6 points vs. the visiting Saints. We’re not advocating gambling, but if we were, we’d certainly advocate taking New Orleans here. Saints 32, Rams 17.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday Night Football:

When the Bengals play at home, they look like one of the 3-4 best teams in the NFL. On the road, they look mediocre at best (3-4 away, 1-2 in 3 OT road games). A win over the Steelers would pull Cincy to 4-4 on the road this year and give them a season sweep of Pittsburgh, as well as knock the Steelers to 5-9. Call it a hunch and an upset play, but we can’t see Mike Tomlin’s crew letting themselves pick up their 9th loss of 2013 to a division rival at home. Steelers 26, Bengals 22.

Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions, Monday Night Football:

The Ravens pulled a victory out vs. the Vikings last week. Then they lost it. Then they won it back. Then they lost it again, before finally winning. We got dizzy watching it. Despite all the hype, the fact remains that Baltimore almost lost to Minnesota in disastrous fashion twice in the final 2 minutes, and is just 1-5 on the road this season. We’re not on the Ravens hype train. Lions 30, Ravens 21.

WEEK 14 PICKS: 13-3

OVERALL 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD THRU WEEK 14: 136-71-1 (65.6%)